The year 2026 is destined to be a blockbuster year for IPOs in global tech history. SpaceX formally submitted its S-1 registration statement to the SEC on May 20, with ticker symbol "SPCX," targeting a June 11–12 pricing and a late-June listing, aiming to raise US$75–80 billion at a US$1.75 trillion valuation. OpenAI confidentially filed its IPO documents on May 22, targeting a September listing at a valuation of US$852 billion to US$1 trillion. Anthropic, after completing its US$90 billion financing round this week, plans to launch its IPO in October. Together, the three companies represent a combined market capitalization of approximately US$3.7 trillion, marking the most significant wave of tech listings since the post-pandemic era.
The Valuation Logic of the Three-Headed Race
| Company | Listing Date | Valuation | Core Narrative | Underwriters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceX | June 2026 | US$1.75T | Space infrastructure + Starlink cash flow | Goldman Sachs (lead) + 21-bank syndicate |
| OpenAI | September 2026 | US$852B–$1T | Frontier AI + consumer ecosystem | Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley |
| Anthropic | October 2026 | US$90B | Enterprise AI + first-ever profitability | TBD |
SpaceX: The Multiplier Definer for Infrastructure
SpaceX's IPO will be the first to price "AI-era infrastructure." Its valuation logic rests on Starlink's cash flow, Starship's space transportation capabilities, and xAI's compute leasing business. The underwriting syndicate of 21 banks is unprecedented in scale, with Goldman Sachs serving as lead underwriter.
OpenAI: The Multiplier Definer for Revenue Models
OpenAI's IPO narrative centers on its consumer ecosystem (900 million weekly active ChatGPT users) and frontier model capabilities (GPT-5.5, Codex). However, the concerns are equally evident—Q1 revenue stood at approximately US$6 billion, but cash burn is projected to exceed US$17 billion in 2026 and reach US$35 billion in 2027. The structural dilemma of "earning one dollar while losing one dollar twenty" remains unresolved.
Adding further drama, OpenAI and SpaceX share core underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, and both have deep ties to Elon Musk—OpenAI was co-founded by him before he exited, while SpaceX is his current core enterprise. The same group of top-tier investment banks simultaneously leading two of the largest IPOs in history is unprecedented in modern equity capital markets.
Anthropic: The Multiplier Definer for Growth Rate
Anthropic's advantage lies in "late-mover advantage"—as the last to go public, it can reference the valuation multiples of the first two as benchmarks while swaying investors with the narratives of "first-ever profitability" and "fastest ARR growth." But the risk is clear: if SpaceX or OpenAI underperforms expectations, it will create "headwinds" for Anthropic's October listing.
The "Pricing Erosion" Risk from Chinese Models
A CNBC survey reveals an overlooked variable: Chinese models' traffic share on the OpenRouter platform continues to rise, with models like DeepSeek delivering equivalent benchmark performance at 1/9 the cost of Claude. If low-cost AI models continue to erode pricing power, public market investors may apply stricter scrutiny to the valuation frameworks of all three AI companies.
Commentary
The US$3.7 trillion IPO wave is not just a capital event—it is a "public trial" of the AI industry's power structure. SpaceX defines "what AI infrastructure is worth," OpenAI defines "what the AI consumer ecosystem is worth," and Anthropic defines "what AI enterprise profitability is worth." The six-month window in which all three go public will be a concentrated pricing period for global capital markets to value the AI industry. But historical experience suggests that "clustered" tech IPOs often signal cyclical peaks—the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 SPAC frenzy serve as cautionary tales. When the combined market capitalization of three companies approaches the GDP of Germany, investors need to ask not "what are they worth," but "has the AI industry been overpriced?"" tech IPOs often signal cyclical peaks—the 2000 dot-com bubble and the 2021 SPAC frenzy serve as cautionary tales. When the combined market capitalization of three companies approaches the GDP of Germany, investors need to ask not "what are they worth," but "has the AI industry been overpriced?"